Most HDB sellers do not wake up deciding to accept less money for their flat. Yet it happens more often than people think, especially in towns like Sengkang where small differences in floor position, remaining lease, and flat size can shift the correct benchmark by tens of thousands.
The main reason is rarely carelessness. The main reason is anchoring to the wrong reference point. Sellers commonly anchor to a town wide median, a nearby block, or a quick scan of recent portal transactions. These references feel reasonable, but they often mix flats that buyers do not treat as comparable. This case study shows how a real listing ended up about S$45,000 below a like for like rolling median, and what sellers should do to avoid the same mistake
Fernvale Link Case Study Using Late-2025 Sengkang Data
A 4 room flat in Sengkang at 440A Fernvale Link was listed from S$619,999. On the surface, that looks competitive. The word “from” may also indicate a pricing strategy designed to attract clicks and viewings, sometimes called price baiting. Even if that is the intent, the starting price still matters because it anchors buyer expectations and influences the offers that follow.
When we benchmark this listing properly using a three month rolling median ending Dec 2025, the anchor price for comparable units is approximately S$665,000. That places the listing roughly S$45,000 below the median for comparable Sengkang HDB flats in the same market window.
What S$45,000 Actually Means
This is not a claim that the seller will definitely transact S$45,000 below fair value. It is a claim that the initial anchor is far below what recent buyers have been paying for flats with the same profile. When the anchor is set too low, negotiations often start from a weaker position, and the seller may have less room to recover later unless buyer competition is very strong.
The correct question is not whether S$619,999 is a good price. The correct question is whether it is aligned with the right like for like median for this flat category today.
Why Most HDB Sellers Use the Wrong Benchmark
Sellers often price using references that are easy to find but weak as pricing anchors.
A town wide median is too broad. It blends multiple estates, lease profiles, size profiles, and a mix of floor positions. It describes the town, not your flat.
A nearby block can also mislead. Two blocks can look similar and be one minute apart, yet belong to different developments and behave differently once lease thresholds are crossed.
A raw transaction list rarely controls for the variables that buyers actually price. When you mix low floors, high floors, older leases, and different size bands, the list looks informative but it is not a clean benchmark.
The Three Dimensions That Define a True Like for Like Median
To find a median that reflects buyer behaviour, three dimensions must be controlled together. If even one dimension is ignored, the anchor can shift materially.
Dimension 1: Block Relative Floor Position
Floor labels on portals can be vague. A storey number alone is also not enough. Buyers evaluate height relative to the block. A tenth floor in a twelve storey block is effectively high floor, while a tenth floor in a twenty five storey block may be mid floor.
A consistent approach is to classify floors based on their position within the block’s total storeys. The block is divided into three equal vertical sections.
Low floor is the bottom one third. Mid floor is the middle one third. High floor is the top one third.
In this case study, 440A was treated as a mid floor unit. That means the comparison set must be mid floor units only, not a blend of low, mid, and high floors.
Dimension 2: Lease Bands Based on Buyer Behaviour
Remaining lease does not behave like a smooth year by year discount. Prices tend to shift in steps when flats cross psychological and financing thresholds. One of the most important thresholds in today’s market is the 80 year mark. Flats just above and just below this line can sit in different buyer categories even if the lease commencement differs by only a few years.
To reflect this, lease should be grouped into behaviour bands rather than treated as a single number.
- 80 years and above
- 60 to 79 years
- 40 to 59 years
- Below 40 years
The key point is category change. Once a flat sits more clearly above 80 years remaining, it is often priced and perceived differently from flats approaching the edge of that threshold.
Dimension 3: National Floor Area Bands
Not all 4 room flats are the same size. Mixing different floor areas introduces quiet distortion. A consistent method is to use national size bands derived from Singapore wide transactions, then apply those bands consistently across towns.
The Fernvale Link listing is about 92 sqm, which sits in the standard modern 4 room size cluster. Comparing it to other standard size units avoids mixing in smaller legacy layouts that often transact lower.
Why Timing Matters: Use a Three Month Rolling Median
Even with perfect segmentation, the time window matters. Full history medians include earlier years when the market was structurally lower. They are useful for long term context, but they are not the best anchor for today’s pricing decision.
A three month rolling median is designed to reflect current buyer behaviour while smoothing one off outliers. It is a practical way to anchor to what buyers were actually paying recently without overreacting to a single month spike.
Using the three dimensions above and a three month rolling window ending Dec 2025, the comparable median for Fernvale Link 4 room mid floor long lease standard size flats is approximately S$665,000.
Worked Example: Why 440A and 441A Are Not Interchangeable
This is the trap many sellers fall into. They see a nearby transaction at 441A and assume it is a valid reference for 440A because it is one block away. In reality, 440A and 441A can belong to different developments, and their lease commencement dates differ by about three years.
That three year difference may sound small, but it matters because lease behaviour is threshold driven. As time passes, one development may sit more comfortably above the 80 year remaining lease threshold while the other edges closer to it. Once that happens, the median gap between the two can widen more than the age difference suggests.
So even though these blocks look close physically, they are not always comparable in pricing category. If a seller anchors to the wrong development reference, the asking price can drift below what their own category supports.
So Why Would a HDB Seller Do This?
In most cases, it happens because the seller is anchored to a convenient reference rather than a true like for like median. They may be using a town wide number, a nearby block, or a mixed transaction table. They may also believe the from S$619,999 approach will pull buyers in and let the market bid up.
That can work in some cases, but when the starting anchor is far below the rolling median, the seller should at least understand the gap and confirm whether it is justified. Otherwise the seller risks setting an initial expectation that does not match recent buyer behaviour for comparable units.
What HDB Sellers Should Do Before Engaging an Agent
Before discussing any asking price with an agent, a seller should know one number clearly: the three month rolling median for flats that match the same floor band, lease band, size band, and development or street.
With that number, the seller can evaluate pricing advice properly and decide whether a proposed strategy is conservative, aligned, or aggressive. Without it, the seller is negotiating without a reliable anchor.
Disclaimer
This article is a case study based on a specific listing and a defined data methodology that compares like with like using block relative floor bands, lease bands, national size bands, and a three month rolling median window. We do not know the seller’s actual motivations or constraints. A listing priced significantly below the median may reflect a clear qualitative drawback that buyers will price in, such as poor orientation, noise exposure, an undesirable stack, or condition that requires substantial renovation.
Get the Median for Your Flat Profile
If you want a median that truly reflects your flat profile rather than a town-wide figure, contact us with your flat details and we will reply with the closest comparable median range based on our segmentation.
Frequently Asked Questions
It means the asking price is lower than what comparable flats have been transacting at recently. A rolling median uses only the latest few months of transactions and reflects current buyer behaviour better than a full history average. Pricing far below it may indicate under-positioning or a qualitative drawback.
No. Pricing below the rolling median can be a deliberate strategy to attract attention or speed up a sale. However, if the gap is large, sellers should understand whether it reflects a genuine drawback or simply the use of the wrong benchmark before accepting it as normal.
A 3 month rolling median reflects recent buyer behaviour and current market conditions. Town wide medians mix different estates, lease profiles, sizes, and floor levels, which can hide meaningful price differences that buyers actually care about.
Floor level affects privacy, noise, and views, but buyers evaluate it relative to the block height. A mid floor in a tall block may not command the same premium as a mid floor in a shorter block. This is why block-relative floor bands provide a more accurate comparison.
Remaining lease affects financing comfort and future resale confidence. Prices often shift when flats cross behavioural thresholds, especially around 80 years remaining, rather than declining smoothly year by year.
Yes. Blocks that are physically close can belong to different developments with different lease commencement dates. Once lease thresholds are crossed, their pricing medians can diverge even if the blocks look similar and are only one block apart.
Price baiting refers to listing a flat at a lower “from” price to attract clicks and viewings. While this can increase interest, the starting price still anchors buyer expectations and can affect negotiation outcomes if set far below the true median.
Sellers should compare flats with the same block-relative floor band, similar remaining lease band, and similar floor area using recent transactions. A 3 month rolling median is often the most practical anchor for pricing decisions.
Yes. Knowing your true median allows you to evaluate pricing advice objectively and avoid anchoring too low. It also helps you distinguish between deliberate pricing strategy and accidental underpricing.